Tag Archives: Peter Diamandis

Now I know that Kurzweil is right.

 

In a previous blog entitled “Why Kurzweil is probably right,” I made this statement,

“Convergence is the way technology leaps forward. Supporting technologies enable formerly impossible things to become suddenly possible.”

That blog was talking about how we are developing AI systems at a rapid pace. I quoted a WIRED magazine article by David Pierce that was previewing consumer AIs already in the marketplace and some of the advancements on the way. Pierce said that a personal agent is,

“…only fully useful when it’s everywhere when it can get to know you in multiple contexts—learning your habits, your likes and dislikes, your routine and schedule. The way to get there is to have your AI colonize as many apps and devices as possible.”

Then, I made my usual cautionary comment about how such technologies will change us. And they will. So, if you follow this blog, you know that I throw cold water onto technological promises as a matter of course. I do this because I believe that someone has to.

Right now I’m preparing my collaborative design studio course. We’re going to be focusing on AR and VR, but since convergence is an undeniable influence on our techno-social future, we will have to keep AI, human augmentation, the Internet of Things, and a host of other emerging technologies on the desktop as well. In researching the background for this class, I read three articles from Peter Diamandis for the Singularity Hub website. I’ve written about Peter before, as well. He’s brilliant. He’s also a cheerleader for the Singularity. So that being said, these articles, one on the Internet of Everything (IoE/IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and another on Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR/VR), are full of promises. Most of what we thought of as science fiction, even a couple of years ago are now happening with such speed that Diamandis and his cohorts believe they are imminent in only three years. And by that I mean commonplace.

If that isn’t enough for us to sit up and take notice, then I am reminded of an article from the Silicon Valley Business Journal, another interview with Ray Kurzweil. Kurzweil, of course, has pretty much convinced us all by now that the Law of Accelerating Returns is no longer hyperbole. If anyone thought that it was only hype, sheer observation should have brought them to their senses. In this article,
Kurzweil gives this excellent illustration of how exponential growth actually plays out—no longer as a theory but—as demonstrable practice.

“Exponentials are quite seductive because they start out sub-linear. We sequenced one ten-thousandth of the human genome in 1990 and two ten-thousandths in 1991. Halfway through the genome project, 7 ½ years into it, we had sequenced 1 percent. People said, “This is a failure. Seven years, 1 percent. It’s going to take 700 years, just like we said.” Seven years later it was done because 1 percent is only seven doublings from 100 percent — and it had been doubling every year. We don’t think in these exponential terms. And that exponential growth has continued since the end of the genome project. These technologies are now thousands of times more powerful than they were 13 years ago when the genome project was completed.”

When you combine that with the nearly exponential chaos of hundreds of other converging technologies, indeed the changes to our world and behavior are coming at us like a bullet-train. Ask any Indy car driver, when things are happening that fast, you have to be paying attention.
But when the input is like a firehose and the motivations are unknown, how on earth do we do that?

Personally, I see this as a calling for design thinkers worldwide. Those in the profession, schooled in the ways of design thinking have been espousing our essential worth to realm of wicked problems for some time now. Well, problems don’t get more wicked than this.

Maybe we can design an AI that could keep us from doing stupid things with technologies that we can make but cannot yet comprehend the impact of.

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Election lessons. Beware who you ignore.

It was election week here in America, but unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last eight months, you already know that. Not unlike the Brexit vote from earlier this year, a lot of people were genuinely surprised by the outcome. Perhaps most surprising to me is that the people who seem to be the most surprised are the people who claimed to know—for certain—that the outcome would be otherwise. Why do you suppose that is? There is a lot of finger-pointing and head-scratching going on but from what I’ve seen so far none of these so-called experts has a clue why they were wrong.

Most of them are blaming polls for their miscalculations. And it’s starting to look like their error came not in who they polled but who they thought irrelevant and ignored. Many in the media are in denial that their efforts to shape the election may have even fueled the fire for the underdog. What has become of American Journalism is shameful. Wikileaks proves that ninety percent of the media was kissing up to the left, with pre-approved interviews, stories and marching orders to “shape the narrative.” I don’t care who you were voting for, that kind of collusion is a disgrace for democracy. Call it Pravda. But I don’t want to turn this blog into a political commentary, but it was amusing to watch them all wearing the stupid hat on Wednesday morning. What I do want to talk about, however, is how we look at data to reach a conclusion.

In a morning-after article from the LinkedIn network, futurist Peter Diamandis posted the topic, “Here’s what election campaign marketing will look like in 2020.” It was less about the election and more about future tech with an occasional reference to the election and campaign processes. He has five predictions. First is, the news flash that “Social media will have continued to explode. [and that] The single most important factor influencing your voting decision is your social network.” Diamandis says that “162 million people log onto Facebook at least once a month.” I agree with the first part of his statement but what about the people the other 50% and those that don’t share their opinions on politics. A lot of pollsters are looking at the huge disparity in projections vs. actuals in the 2016 election. They are acknowledging that a lot of people simply weren’t forthcoming in pre-election polling. Those planning to vote Trump, for example, knew that Trump was a polarizing figure and they weren’t going to get into it with their friends on social media or even a stranger taking a poll. Then, I’m willing to bet that a lot of voters who put the election over the top are in the fifty percent that isn’t on social media. Just look at the demographics for social media.

Peter Diamandis is a brilliant guy, and I’m not here to pick on him. Many of his predictions are quite conceivable. Mostly he’s talking about an increase in data mining, and AI is getting better at learning from it, with a laser focus on the individual. If you add this together with programmable avatars, facial recognition improvements and the Internet of Things, the future means that we are all going to be tracked with increasing levels of detail. And though our face is probably not something we can keep secret, if it all creeps you out, remember that much of this is based on what we choose to share. Fortunately, it will take a little bit longer than 2020 for all of these new technologies to read our minds—so until then we still hold the cards. As long as you don’t share our most private thoughts on social media or with pollsters, you’ll keep them guessing.

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Logical succession, the final installment.

For the past couple of weeks, I have been discussing the idea posited by Ray Kurzweil, that we will have linked our neocortex to the Cloud by 2030. That’s less than 15 years, so I have been asking how that could come to pass with so many technological obstacles in the way. When you make a prediction of that sort, I believe you need a bit more than faith in the exponential curve of “accelerating returns.”

This week I’m not going to take issue with an enormous leap forward in the nanobot technology to accomplish such a feat. Nor am I going to question the vastly complicated tasks of connecting to the neocortex and extracting anything coherent, but also assembling memories, and consciousness and in turn, beaming it to the Cloud. Instead, I’m going to pose the question of, “Why we would want to do this in the first place?”

According to Kurzweil, in a talk last year at Singularity University,

“We’re going to be funnier. We’re going to be sexier. We’re going to be better at expressing loving sentiment…” 1

Another brilliant futurist, and friend of Ray, Peter Diamandis includes these additional benefits:

• Brain to Brain Communication – aka Telepathy
• Instant Knowledge – download anything, complex math, how to fly a plane, or speak another language
• Access More Powerful Computing – through the Cloud
• Tap Into Any Virtual World – no visor, no controls. Your neocortex thinks you are there.
• And more, including and extended immune system, expandable and searchable memories, and “higher-order existence.”2

As Kurzweil explains,

“So as we evolve, we become closer to God. Evolution is a spiritual process. There is beauty and love and creativity and intelligence in the world — it all comes from the neocortex. So we’re going to expand the brain’s neocortex and become more godlike.”1

The future sounds quite remarkable. My issue lies with Koestler’s “ghost in the machine,” or what I call humankind’s uncanny ability to foul things up. Diamandis’ list could easily spin this way:

  • Brain-To-Brain hacking – reading others thoughts
  • Instant Knowledge – to deceive, to steal, to subvert, or hijack.
  • Access to More Powerful Computing – to gain the advantage or any of the previous list.
  • Tap Into Any Virtual World – experience the criminal, the evil, the debauched and not go to jail for it.

You get the idea. Diamandis concludes, “If this future becomes reality, connected humans are going to change everything. We need to discuss the implications in order to make the right decisions now so that we are prepared for the future.”

Nevertheless, we race forward. We discovered this week that “A British researcher has received permission to use a powerful new genome-editing technique on human embryos, even though researchers throughout the world are observing a voluntary moratorium on making changes to DNA that could be passed down to subsequent generations.”3 That would be CrisprCas9.

It was way back in 1968 that Stewart Brand introduced The Whole Earth Catalog with, “We are as gods and might as well get good at it.”

Which lab is working on that?

 

1. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ray-kurzweil-nanobots-brain-godlike_us_560555a0e4b0af3706dbe1e2
2. http://singularityhub.com/2015/10/12/ray-kurzweils-wildest-prediction-nanobots-will-plug-our-brains-into-the-web-by-the-2030s/
3. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/health/crispr-gene-editing-human-embryos-kathy-niakan-britain.html?_r=0
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Anticipation. Start by working with the future.

 

 

A couple of blogs ago I wrote about my experiment with the notion of ubiquitous surveillance. I chose this topic because in many ways surveillance is becoming ubiquitous. It is also the kind of technology that I see as potentially the most dangerous because it is slow and incremental and it grows through convergence.

Technological convergence is the idea that disparate technologies sometimes merge with, amplify and/or enfold other technologies. An example often cited is the smartphone. At one time its sole purpose was to make phone calls. Meanwhile other technologies such as calculators, cameras, GPS devices, and video players were each separate devices. Gradually, over time, these separate technologies (and many more) converged into a single hand-held device, the smartphone. Today we have a smartphone that would blow the doors off of a laptop from 15 years ago. The downside to technological convergence (TC) is that these changes can be very disruptive to markets. If you were in the business of GPS devices a few years ago you know what this means.

TC makes change much more rapid and more disorderly. Change becomes unpredictable.

The same concept can be applied to other technological advancements. Biotech could merge capabilities with nanotechnology. Robotics could incorporate artificial intelligence. Nanotech for example could enable many of the technologies formerly in our devices to be implanted into our bodies.

Google’s Chief of Tech and noted futurist Ray Kurzweil is a someone I follow. Not just because he’s brilliant, nor because I agree with his aspirations for future tech, but because he’s often right with his predictions; like 80% of the time. According to Peter Diamandis for singularityhub.com,

“’In the 2030s,” said Ray, ”we are going to send nano-robots into the brain (via capillaries) that will provide full-immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system and will connect our neocortex to the cloud. Just like how we can wirelessly expand the power of our smartphones 10,000-fold in the cloud today, we’ll be able to expand our neocortex in the cloud.”

I’ll let you chew on that for a few sentences while I throw out another concept. Along with all of these “technologies” that seem to be striving for the betterment of humankind, there are more than a few disruptive technologies that are advancing equally as fast. We could toss surveillance, hacking, and terrorism into that pot. There is no reason why these efforts cannot be advanced and converged at an equally alarming and potentially unpredictable rate. You can do the math.

Should that keep us from moving forward? Probably not. But at the same time, maybe we should start thinking about the future as something that could happen instead of something impossible?  

More to think about on a Friday afternoon.

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