Tag Archives: Ray Kurzweil

The right thing to do. Remember that idea?

I’ve been detecting some blowback recently regarding all the attention surrounding emerging AI, it’s near-term effect on jobs, and it’s long-term impact on humanity. Having an anticipatory mindset toward artificial intelligence is just the logical thing to do. As I have said before, designing a car without a braking system would be foolish. Anticipating the eventuality that you might need to slow down or stop the car is just good design. Nevertheless, there are a lot of people, important people in positions of power that think this is a lot of hooey. They must think that human ingenuity will address any unforeseen circumstances, that science is always benevolent, that stuff like AI is “a long way off,” that the benefits outweigh the downsides, and that all people are basically good. Disappointed I am that this includes our Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. WIRED carried the story and so did my go-to futurist Amy Webb. In her newsletter Amy states,

“When asked about the future of artificial intelligence, automation and the workforce at an Axios event, this was Mnuchin’s reply: ‘It’s not even on our radar screen,’ he said, adding that significant workforce disruption due to AI is ‘50 to 100’ years away. ‘I’m not worried at all’”

Sigh! I don’t care what side of the aisle you’re on, that’s just plain naive. Turning a blind eye to potentially transformative technologies is also dangerous. Others are skeptical of any regulation (perhaps rightly so) that stifles innovation and progress. But safeguards and guidelines are not that. They are well-considered recommendations that are designed to protect while facilitating research and exploration. On the other side of the coin, they are also not laws, which means that if you don’t want to or don’t care to, you don’t have to follow them.

Nevertheless, I was pleased to see a relatively comprehensive set of AI principles that emerged from the Asilomar Conference that I blogged about a couple of weeks ago. The 2017 Asilomar conference organized by The Future of Life Institute,

“…brought together an amazing group of AI researchers from academia and industry, and thought leaders in economics, law, ethics, and philosophy for five days dedicated to beneficial AI.”

The gathering generated the Asilomar AI Principles, a remarkable first step on the eve of an awesome technological power. None of these people, from the panel I highlighted in the last blog, are anxious for regulation, but at the same time, they are aware of the enormous potential for bad actors to undermine whatever beneficial aspects of the technology might surface. Despite my misgivings, an AGI is inevitable. Someone is going to build it, and someone else will find a way to misuse it.

There are plenty more technologies that pose questions. One is nanotechnology. Unlike AI, Hollywood doesn’t spend much time painting nanotechnological dystopias, perhaps that along with the fact that they’re invisible to the naked eye, lets the little critters slip under the radar. While researching a paper for another purpose, I decided to look into nanotechnology to see what kinds of safeguards and guidelines are in place to deal with that rapidly emerging technology. There are clearly best practices by reputable researchers, scientists, and R&D departments but it was especially disturbing to find out that none of these are mandates. Especially since there are thousands of consumer products that use nanotechnology including food, cosmetics, clothing, electronics, and more. A nanometer is very small. Nanotech concerns itself with creations that exist in the 100nm range and below, roughly 7,500 times smaller than a human hair. In the Moore’s Law race, nanothings are the next frontier in cramming data onto a computer chip, or implanting them into our brains or living cells. However, due to their size, nanoparticles can also be inhaled, absorbed into the skin, flushed into the water supply and leeched into the soil. We don’t know what happens if we aggregate a large number of nanoparticles or differing combinations of nanoparticles in our body. We don’t even know how to test for it. And, get ready. Currently, there are no regulations. That means manufacturers do not need to disclose it, and there are no laws to protect the people who work with it. Herein, we have a classic example of bad decisions in the present that make for worse futures. Imagine the opposite: Anticipation of what could go wrong and sound industry intervention at a scale that pre-empts government intervention or the dystopian scenarios that the naysayers claim are impossible.

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The genius panel has some serious concerns.

Occasionally in preparing this blog, there are troughs in the technology newsfeed. But not now, and maybe never again. So it is with technology that accelerates exponentially. This idea, by the way, is a concept of which I will no longer try to convince my readers. I’m going to stop referencing why Kurzweil’s theorem, that technology advances exponentially is no longer a theorem and just move forward with the assumption that you know that it is. If you don’t agree,  then scout backwards—probably six months of previous blogs—and you’ll be on the same page. From here on, technology advances exponentially! With that being said, we are also no longer at the base of the exponential curve. We are beginning a steep climb.

Last week I highlighted Kurzweil’s upgraded prediction on the Singularity (12 years). I agree, though now I think he may be underselling things. It could easily arrive before that.

Today’s blog comes from a hot tip from one of my students. At the beginning of each semester, I always turn my students on to the idea of GoogleAlerts. It works like this: You tell Google to send you anything and everything on whatever topic interests you. Then, anytime there is news online that fits your topic, you get an email with a list of links from Google. The emails can be inundating so choose your search wisely. At any rate, my student who drank the GoogleAlert kool-aid sent me a link to a panel discussion that took place in January of 2017. The panel convened at something called Beneficial AI 2017 in Asilomar, California. And what a panel it was. Get this: Bart Selman (Cornell), David Chalmers (NYU), Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX), Jaan Tallinn (CSER/FLI), Nick Bostrom (FHI), Ray Kurzweil (Google), Stuart Russell (Berkeley), Sam Harris, Demis Hassabis (DeepMind). Sam is a philosopher, author, neuroscientist and noted secularist. I’ve cited nearly all of these characters before in blogs or research papers, so to see them all on one panel was, for me, amazing.

L to R: Elon Musk, Stuart Russell , Bart Selman, Ray Kurzweil, David Chalmers, Nick Bostrom, Demis Hassabis, Sam Harris, Jaan Tallinn.

 

Why were they there? The Future of Life Institute (FLI) organized the BAI 2017 event:

“In our sequel to the 2015 Puerto Rico AI conference, we brought together an amazing group of AI researchers from academia and industry, and thought leaders in economics, law, ethics, and philosophy for five days dedicated to beneficial AI.”

FLI works together with CSER. (The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk). I confess that I was not aware of either organization, but this is encouraging. For example, CSER’s mission is stated as

“[…]within the University of Cambridge dedicated to the study and mitigation of human extinction-level risks that may emerge from technological advances and human activity.”

FLI describes themselves thus:

“We are a charity and outreach organization working to ensure that tomorrow’s most powerful technologies are beneficial for humanity […] We are currently focusing on keeping artificial intelligence beneficial and we are also exploring ways of reducing risks from nuclear weapons and biotechnology.”

Both organizations are loaded with scientists and technologists including Steven Hawking, Bostrom, and Musk.

The panel of genius’ got off to a rocky start because there weren’t enough microphones to go around. Duh. But then things got interesting. The topic of safe AI or what these fellows refer to as AGI, Artificial General Intelligence, is a deep well fraught with promise and doom. The encouraging thing is that these organizations realize the potential for either, the discomforting thing is that they’re genuinely concerned.

As I have discussed before, this race to a superintelligence which Kurzweil moved up to 2029 a few weeks ago, is moving full speed ahead and it is climbing in a steep exponential incline. It is likely that we will be able to build it long before we have figured out how to keep it from destroying us. I’m on record as saying that even the notion of a superintelligence is an error in judgment. If what you want to do is cure disease, aging, and save the planet, why not stop short of full-tilt superintelligence. Surely you get a very, very, very intelligent AI to give you what you want and go no further. After hearing the panel discussion, however, I see this as naive. As Kurzweil stated in the discussion,

“…there really isn’t a foolproof technical solution to this… If you have an AI that is more intelligent than you and is out for your destruction, it’s out for the world’s destruction, and there is no other AI that is superior to it, that’s a bad situation. So that’s the specter […] Imagine that we’ve done our job perfectly, and we’ve created the most safe, beneficial AI possible, but we’ve let the political system become totalitarian and evil, either an evil world government or just a portion of the globe, that is that way, it’s not going to work out well. So part of the struggle is in the area of politics and policy to have the world reflect the values we want to achieve. Human AI is by definition at human levels and therefore is human. So the issue is, ‘How do we make humans ethical?’ is the same issue as, ‘How we make AIs that are at human level, ethical?’”

So there we have the problem of human nature, again. If we can’t fix ourselves if we can’t even agree on what’s broken, how can we build a benevolent god? Fortunately, brilliant minds are honestly concerned about this but that doesn’t mean they’re going to put on the brakes. It was stated in full agreement by the panel: a superintelligence is inevitable. If we don’t build it, someone else will.

It is also safe to assume that our super ethical AI won’t have the same ethics as someone else’s AI. Hence, Kurzweil’s specter. I could turn this into an essay, but I’ll stop here for now. What do you think?

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But nobody knows what better is.

South by Southwest, otherwise known as SXSW calls itself a film and music festival and interactive media conference. It’s held every spring in Austin, Texas. Other than maybe the Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show or San Diego’s ComicCon, I can’t think of many conferences that generate as much buzz as SXSW. This year it is no different. I will have blog fodder for weeks. Though I can’t speak to the film or music side, I’m sure they were scintillating. Under the category of interactive, most of the buzz is about technology in general, as tech gurus and futurists are always in attendance along with celebs who align themselves to the future.

Once again at SXSW, Ray Kurzweil was on stage. In my blogs, Kurzweil is probably the one guy I quote the most throughout this blog. So here we go again. Two tech sites caught my eye they week, reporting on Kurzweil’s latest prediction that moves up the date of the Singularity from 2045 to 2029; that’s 12 years away. Since we are enmeshed in the world of exponentially accelerating technology, I have encouraged my students to start wrapping their heads around the idea of exponential growth. In our most recent project, it was a struggle just to embrace the idea of how in only seven years we could see transformational change. If Kurzweil is right about his latest prognostication, then 12 years could be a real stunner. In case you are visiting this blog for the first time, the Singularity to which Kurzweil refers is, acknowledged as the point at which computer intelligence exceeds that of human intelligence; it will know more, anticipate more, and analyze more than any human capability. Nick Bostrom calls it the last invention we will ever need to make. We’ve already seen this to some extent with IBM’s Watson beating the pants off a couple of Jeopardy masters and Google’s DeepMind handily beat a Go genius at a game that most thought to be too complex for a computer to handle. Some refer to this “computer” as a superintelligence, and warn that we better be designing the braking mechanism in tandem with the engine, or this smarter-than-us computer may outsmart us in unfortunate ways.

In an article in Scientific American, Northwestern University psychology professor Paul Weber says we are bombarded each day with about 2.5 exabytes of data and that the human brain can only store an estimated 2.5 petabytes (a million gigabytes). Of course, the bombardment will continue to increase. Another voice that emerges in this discussion is Rob High IBM’s vice president and chief technology officer. According to the futurism tech blog, High was part of a panel discussion at the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) SciTech Conference 2017. High said,

“…we have a very desperate need for cognitive computing…The information being produced is far surpassing our ability to consume and make use of…”

On the surface, this seems like a compelling argument for faster, more pervasive computing. But since it is my mission to question otherwise compelling arguments, I want to ask whether we actually need to process 2.5 exabytes of information? It would appear that our existing technology has already turned on the firehose of data (Did we give it permission?) and now it’s up to us to find a way to drink from the firehose. To me, it sounds like we need a regulator, not a bigger gullet. I have observed that the traditional argument in favor of more, better, faster often comes wrapped in the package of help for humankind.

Rob High, again from the futurism article, says,

“‘If you’re a doctor and you’re trying to figure out the best way to treat your patient, you don’t have the time to go read the latest literature and apply that knowledge to that decision’ High explained. ‘In any scenario, we can’t possibly find and remember everything.’ This is all good news, according to High. We need AI systems that can assist us in what we do, particularly in processing all the information we are exposed to on a regular basis — data that’s bound to even grow exponentially in the next couple of years.’”

From another futurism article, Kurzweil uses a similar logic:

“We’re going to be able to meet the physical needs of all humans. We’re going to expand our minds and exemplify these artistic qualities that we value.”

The other rationale that almost always becomes coupled with expanding our minds is that we will be “better.” No one, however, defines what better is. You could be a better jerk. You could be a better rapist or terrorist or megalomaniac. What are we missing exactly, that we have to be smarter, or that Bach, or Mozart are suddenly inferior? Is our quality of life that impoverished? And for those who are impoverished, how does this help them? And what about making us smarter? Smarter at what?

But not all is lost. On a more positive note, futurism in a third article (they were busy this week), reports,

“The K&L Gates Endowment for Ethics and Computational Technologies seeks to introduce the thoughtful discussion on the use of AI in society. It is being established through funding worth $10 million from K&L Gates, one of the United States’ largest law firms, and the money will be used to hire new faculty chairs as well as support three new doctoral students.”

Though I’m not sure whether we can consider this a regulator, rather something to lessen the pain of swallowing.

Finally (for this week), back to Rob High,

“Smartphones are just the tip of the iceberg,” High said. “Human intelligence has its limitations and artificial intelligence is going to evolve in a lot of ways that won’t be similar to human intelligence. But, I think they will work best in the presence of humans.”

So, I’m more concerned with when artificial intelligence is not working at its best.

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A guerrilla future realized.

This week my brilliant students in Collaborative Studio 4650 provided a real word guerrilla future for the Humane Technologies: Livable Futures Pop-Up Collaboration at The Ohio State University. The design fiction was replete with diegetic prototypes and a video enactment. Our goal was to present a believable future in 2024 when ubiquitous AR glasses are the part of our mundane everyday. We made the presentation in Sullivant Hall’s Barnett Theater, and each member of the team had a set of mock AR glasses. The audience consisted of about 50 students ranging from the humanities to business. It was an amazing experience. It has untold riches for my design fiction research, but there were also a lot of revelations about how we experience, and enfold technology. After the presentation, we pulled out the white paper and markers and divided up into groups for a more detailed deconstruction of what transpired. While I have not plowed through all the scrolls that resulted from the post-presentation discussion groups, it seems universal that we can recognize how technology is apt to modify our behavior. It is also interesting to see that most of us have no clue how to resist these changes. Julian Oliver wrote in his (2011) The Critical Engineering Manifesto,

“5. The Critical Engineer recognises that each work of engineering engineers its user, proportional to that user’s dependency upon it.”

The idea of being engineered by our technology was evident throughout the AugHumana presentation video, and in discussions, we quickly identified the ways in which our current technological devices engineer us. At the same time, we feel more or less powerless to change or effect that phenomenon. Indeed, we have come to accept these small, incremental, seemingly mundane, changes to our behavior as innocent or adaptive in a positive way. En masse, they are neither. Kurzweil stated that,

‘We are not going to reach the Singularity in some single great leap forward, but rather through a great many small steps, each seemingly benign and modest in scope.’

History has shown that these steps are incrementally embraced by society and often give way to systems with a life of their own. An idea raised in one discussion group was labeled as effective dissent, but it seems almost obvious that unless we anticipate these imminent behavioral changes, by the time we notice them it is already too late, either because the technology is already ubiquitous or our habits and procedures solidly support that behavior.

There are ties here to material culture and the philosophy of technology that merits more research, but the propensity for technology to affect behavior in an inhumane way is powerful. These are early reflections, no doubt to be continued.

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Paying attention.

I want to make a Tshirt. On the front, it will say, “7 years is a long time.” On the back, it will say, “Pay attention!”

What am I talking about? I’ll start with some background. This semester, I am teaching a collaborative studio with designers from visual communications, interior design, and industrial design. Our topic is Humane Technologies, and we are examining the effects of an Augmented Reality (AR) system that could be ubiquitous in 7 years. The process began with an immersive scan of the available information and emerging advances in AR, VR, IoT, human augmentation (HA) and, of course, AI. In my opinion, these are a just a few of the most transformative technologies currently attracting the heaviest investment across the globe. And where the money goes there goes the most rapid advancement.

A conversation starter.

One of the biggest challenges for the collaborative studio class (myself included) is to think seven years out. Although we read Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns, our natural tendency is to think linearly, not exponentially. One of my favorite Kurzweil illustrations is this:

“Exponentials are quite seductive because they start out sub-linear. We sequenced one ten-thousandth of the human genome in 1990 and two ten-thousandths in 1991. Halfway through the genome project, 7 ½ years into it, we had sequenced 1 percent. People said, “This is a failure. Seven years, 1 percent. It’s going to take 700 years, just like we said.” Seven years later it was done, because 1 percent is only seven doublings from 100 percent — and it had been doubling every year. We don’t think in these exponential terms. And that exponential growth has continued since the end of the genome project. These technologies are now thousands of times more powerful than they were 13 years ago, when the genome project was completed.”1

So when I hear a policymaker, say, “We’re a long way from that,” I cringe. We’re not a long way away from that. The iPhone was introduced on June 29, 2007, not quite ten years ago. The ripple-effects from that little technological marvel are hard to catalog. With the smartphone, we have transformed everything from social and behavioral issues to privacy and safety. As my students examine the next possible phase of our thirst for the latest and greatest, AR (and it’s potential for smartphone-like ubiquity), I want them to ask the questions that relate to supporting systems, along with the social and ethical repercussions of these transformations. At the end of it all, I hope that they will walk away with an appreciation for paying attention to what we make and why. For example, why would we make a machine that would take away our job? Why would we build a superintelligence? More often than not, I fear the answer is because we can.

Our focus on the technologies mentioned above is just a start. There are more than these, and we shouldn’t forget things like precise genetic engineering techniques such as CRISPR/Cas9 Gene Editing, neuromorphic technologies such as microprocessors configured like brains, the digital genome that could be the key to disease eradication, machine learning, and robotics.

Though they may sound innocuous by themselves, they each have gigantic implications for disruptions to society. The wild card in all of these is how they converge with each other and the results that no one anticipated. One such mutation would be when autonomous weapons systems (AI + robotics + machine learning) converge with an aggregation of social media activity to predict, isolate and eliminate a viral uprising.

From recent articles and research by the Department of Defense, this is no longer theoretical; we are actively pursuing it. I’ll talk more about that next week. Until then, pay attention.

 

1. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2016/09/06/exclusivegoogle-singularity-visionary-ray.htm
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Now I know that Kurzweil is right.

 

In a previous blog entitled “Why Kurzweil is probably right,” I made this statement,

“Convergence is the way technology leaps forward. Supporting technologies enable formerly impossible things to become suddenly possible.”

That blog was talking about how we are developing AI systems at a rapid pace. I quoted a WIRED magazine article by David Pierce that was previewing consumer AIs already in the marketplace and some of the advancements on the way. Pierce said that a personal agent is,

“…only fully useful when it’s everywhere when it can get to know you in multiple contexts—learning your habits, your likes and dislikes, your routine and schedule. The way to get there is to have your AI colonize as many apps and devices as possible.”

Then, I made my usual cautionary comment about how such technologies will change us. And they will. So, if you follow this blog, you know that I throw cold water onto technological promises as a matter of course. I do this because I believe that someone has to.

Right now I’m preparing my collaborative design studio course. We’re going to be focusing on AR and VR, but since convergence is an undeniable influence on our techno-social future, we will have to keep AI, human augmentation, the Internet of Things, and a host of other emerging technologies on the desktop as well. In researching the background for this class, I read three articles from Peter Diamandis for the Singularity Hub website. I’ve written about Peter before, as well. He’s brilliant. He’s also a cheerleader for the Singularity. So that being said, these articles, one on the Internet of Everything (IoE/IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and another on Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR/VR), are full of promises. Most of what we thought of as science fiction, even a couple of years ago are now happening with such speed that Diamandis and his cohorts believe they are imminent in only three years. And by that I mean commonplace.

If that isn’t enough for us to sit up and take notice, then I am reminded of an article from the Silicon Valley Business Journal, another interview with Ray Kurzweil. Kurzweil, of course, has pretty much convinced us all by now that the Law of Accelerating Returns is no longer hyperbole. If anyone thought that it was only hype, sheer observation should have brought them to their senses. In this article,
Kurzweil gives this excellent illustration of how exponential growth actually plays out—no longer as a theory but—as demonstrable practice.

“Exponentials are quite seductive because they start out sub-linear. We sequenced one ten-thousandth of the human genome in 1990 and two ten-thousandths in 1991. Halfway through the genome project, 7 ½ years into it, we had sequenced 1 percent. People said, “This is a failure. Seven years, 1 percent. It’s going to take 700 years, just like we said.” Seven years later it was done because 1 percent is only seven doublings from 100 percent — and it had been doubling every year. We don’t think in these exponential terms. And that exponential growth has continued since the end of the genome project. These technologies are now thousands of times more powerful than they were 13 years ago when the genome project was completed.”

When you combine that with the nearly exponential chaos of hundreds of other converging technologies, indeed the changes to our world and behavior are coming at us like a bullet-train. Ask any Indy car driver, when things are happening that fast, you have to be paying attention.
But when the input is like a firehose and the motivations are unknown, how on earth do we do that?

Personally, I see this as a calling for design thinkers worldwide. Those in the profession, schooled in the ways of design thinking have been espousing our essential worth to realm of wicked problems for some time now. Well, problems don’t get more wicked than this.

Maybe we can design an AI that could keep us from doing stupid things with technologies that we can make but cannot yet comprehend the impact of.

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Big-Data Algorithms. Don’t worry. Be happy.

 

It’s easier for us to let the data decide for us. At least that is the idea behind global digital design agency Huge. Aaron Shapiro is the CEO. He says, “The next big breakthrough in design and technology will be the creation of products, services, and experiences that eliminate the needless choices from our lives and make ones on our behalf, freeing us up for the ones we really care about: Anticipatory design.”

Buckminster Fuller wrote about Anticipatory Design Science, but this is not that. Trust me. Shapiro’s version is about allowing big data, by way of artificial intelligence and neural networks, to become so familiar with us and our preferences that it anticipates what we need to do next. In this vision, I don’t have to decide what to wear, or eat, or how to get to work, or when to buy groceries, or gasoline, what color trousers go with my shoes and also when it’s time to buy new shoes. No decisions will be necessary. Interestingly, Shapiro sees this as a good thing. The idea comes from a flurry of activity about something called decision fatigue. What is that? In a nutshell, it says that our decision-making capacity is a reservoir that gradually gets depleted the more decisions we make, possibly as a result of body chemistry. After a long string of decisions, according to the theory, we are more likely to make a bad decision or none at all. Things like willpower disintegrate along with our decision-making.

Among the many articles in the last few months on this topic was FastCompany, who wrote that,

“Anticipatory design is fundamentally different: decisions are made and executed on behalf of the user. The goal is not to help the user make a decision, but to create an ecosystem where a decision is never made—it happens automatically and without user input. The design goal becomes one where we eliminate as many steps as possible and find ways to use data, prior behaviors and business logic to have things happen automatically, or as close to automatic as we can get.”

Supposedly this frees “us up for the ones we really care about.”
My questions are, who decides which questions are important? And once we are freed from making decisions, will we even know that we have missed on that we really care about?

Google Now is a digital assistant that not only responds to a user’s requests and questions, but predicts wants and needs based on search history. Pulling flight information from emails, meeting times from calendars and providing recommendations of where to eat and what to do based on past preferences and current location, the user simply has to open the app for their information to compile.”

It’s easy to forget that AI as we currently know it goes under the name of Facebook or Google or Apple or Amazon. We tend to think of AI as some ghostly future figure or a bank of servers, or an autonomous robot. It reminds me a bit of my previous post about Nick Bostrom and the development of SuperIntelligence. Perhaps it is a bit like an episode of Person of Interest. As we think about designing systems that think for us and decide what is best for us, it might be a good idea to think about what it might be like to no longer think—as long as we still can.

 

 

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Superintelligence. Is it the last invention we will ever need to make?

I believe it is crucial that we move beyond preparation to adapt or react to the future but to actively engage in shaping it.

An excellent example of this kind of thinking is Nick Bostrom’s TED talk from 2015.

Bostrom is concerned about the day when machine intelligence exceeds human intelligence (the guess is somewhere between twenty and thirty years from now). He points out that, “Once there is super-intelligence, the fate of humanity may depend on what the super-intelligence does. Think about it: Machine intelligence is the last invention that humanity will ever need to make. Machines will then be better at inventing [designing] than we are, and they’ll be doing so on digital timescales.”

His concern is legitimate. How do we control something that is smarter than we are? Anticipating AI will require more strenuous design thinking than that which produces the next viral game, app, or service. But these applications are where the lion’s share of the money is going. When it comes to keeping us from being at best irrelevant or at worst an impediment to AI, Bostrom is guardedly optimistic about how we can approach it. He thinks we could, “[…]create an A.I. that uses its intelligence to learn what we value, and its motivation system is constructed in such a way that it is motivated to pursue our values or to perform actions that it predicts we would approve of.”

At the crux of his argument and mine: “Here is the worry: Making superintelligent A.I. is a really hard challenge. Making superintelligent A.I. that is safe involves some additional challenge on top of that. The risk is that if somebody figures out how to crack the first challenge without also having cracked the additional challenge of ensuring perfect safety.”

Beyond machine learning (which has many facets), there are a wide-ranging set of technologies, from genetic engineering to drone surveillance, to next-generation robotics, and even VR, that could be racing forward without someone thinking about this “additional challenge.”

This could be an excellent opportunity for designers. But, to do that, we will have to broaden our scope to engage with science, engineering, and politics. More on that in future blogs.

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Transcendent Plan

 

One of my oft-quoted sources for future technology is Ray Kurzweil. A brilliant technologist, inventor, and futurist, Kurzweil seems to see it all very clearly, almost as though he were at the helm personally. Some of Kurzweil’s theses are crystal clear for me, such as an imminent approach toward the Singularity in a series of innocuous, ‘seemingly benign,’ steps. I also agree with his Law of Accelerating Returns1 which posits that technology advances exponentially. In a recent interview with the Silicon Valley Business Journal, he nicely illustrated that idea.

“Exponentials are quite seductive because they start out sub-linear. We sequenced one ten-thousandth of the human genome in 1990 and two ten-thousandths in 1991. Halfway through the genome project, 7 ½ years into it, we had sequenced 1 percent. People said, “This is a failure. Seven years, 1 percent. It’s going to take 700 years, just like we said.” Seven years later it was done, because 1 percent is only seven doublings from 100 percent — and it had been doubling every year. We don’t think in these exponential terms. And that exponential growth has continued since the end of the genome project. These technologies are now thousands of times more powerful than they were 13 years ago, when the genome project was completed.”

Kurzweil says the same kinds of leaps are approaching for solar power, resources, disease, and longevity. Our tendency to think linear instead of exponential means that we can deceive ourselves into believing that technologies that, ‘just aren’t there yet,’ are ‘a long way off.’ In reality, they may be right around the corner.

I’m not as solid in my affirmation of Kurzweil (and others) when it comes to some of his other predictions. Without reading too much between the lines, you can see that there is a philosophy that is helping to drive Kurzweil. Namely, he doesn’t want to die. Of course, who does? But his is a quest to deny death on a techno-transcendental level. Christianity holds that eternal life awaits the believer in Jesus Christ, other religions are satisfied that our atoms return to the greater cosmos, or that reincarnation is the next step. It would appear that Kurzweil has no time for faith. His bet on science and technology. He states,

“I think we’re very much on track to have human-level AI by 2029, which has been my consistent prediction for 20 years, and then to be able to send nanobots into the brain in the 2030s and connect our biological neocortex to synthetic neocortex in the cloud.”

In the article mentioned above, Kurzweil states that his quest to live forever is not just about the 200-plus supplements that he takes daily. He refers to this as “Bridge One.” Bridge One buys us time until technology catches up. Then “Bridge Two,” the “biotechnology revolution” takes over and radically extends our life. If all else fails, our mind will be uploaded to Cloud (which will have evolved to a synthetic neocortex), though it remains to be seen whether the sum-total of a mind also equals consciousness in some form.

For many who struggle with the idea of death, religious or not, I wonder if when we dissect it, it is not the fear of physical decrepitude that scares us, but the loss of consciousness; that unique ability of humans to comprehend their world, share language and emotions, to create and contemplate?

I would pose that it is indeed that consciousness that makes us human (along with the injustice at the thought that we feel that we might lose it. It would seem that transcendence is in order. In one scenario this transcendence comes from God, in another ‘we are as Gods.’2

So finally, I wonder whether all of these small, exponentially replicating innovations—culminating to the point where we are accessing Cloud-data only by thinking, or communicating via telepathy, or writing symphonies for eternity—will make us more or less human. If we decide that we are no happier, no more content or fulfilled, is there any going back?

Seeing as it might be right around the corner, we might want to think about these things now rather than later.

 

1. Kurzweil, R. (2001) The Law of Accelerating Returns, KurzweilAI . Kurzweil AI. Available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns (Accessed: October 10, 2015). 
2. Brand, Stewart. “WE ARE AS GODS.” The Whole Earth Catalog, September 1968, 1-58. Accessed May 04, 2015. http://www.wholeearth.com/issue/1010/article/195/we.are.as.gods.
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The nature of the unpredictable.

 

Following up on last week’s post, I confessed some concern about technologies that progress too quickly and combine unpredictably.

Stewart Brand introduced the 1968 Whole Earth Catalog with, “We are as gods and might as well get good at it.”1 Thirty-two years later, he wrote that new technologies such as computers, biotechnology and nanotechnology are self-accelerating, that they differ from older, “stable, predictable and reliable,” technologies such as television and the automobile. Brand states that new technologies “…create conditions that are unstable, unpredictable and unreliable…. We can understand natural biology, subtle as it is because it holds still. But how will we ever be able to understand quantum computing or nanotechnology if its subtlety keeps accelerating away from us?”2. If we combine Brand’s concern with Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns and the current supporting evidence exponentially, as the evidence supports, will it be as Brand suggests unpredictable?

Last week I discussed an article from WIRED Magazine on the VR/MR company Magic Leap. The author writes,

“Even if you’ve never tried virtual reality, you probably possess a vivid expectation of what it will be like. It’s the Matrix, a reality of such convincing verisimilitude that you can’t tell if it’s fake. It will be the Metaverse in Neal Stephenson’s rollicking 1992 novel, Snow Crash, an urban reality so enticing that some people never leave it.”

And it will be. It is, as I said last week, entirely logical to expect it.

We race toward these technologies with visions of mind-blowing experiences or life-changing cures, and usually, we imagine only the upside. We all too often forget the human factor. Let’s look at some other inevitable technological developments.
• Affordable DNA testing will tell you your risk of inheriting a disease or debilitating condition.
• You can ingest a pill that tells your doctor, or you in case you forgot, that you took your medicine.
• Soon we will have life-like robotic companions.
• Virtual reality is affordable, amazingly real and completely user-friendly.

These are simple scenarios because they will likely have aspects that make them even more impressive, more accessible and more profoundly useful. And like most technological developments, they will also become mundane and expected. But along with them come the possibility of a whole host of unintended consequences. Here are a few.
• The government’s universal healthcare requires that citizens have a DNA test before you qualify.
• It monitors whether you’ve taken your medication and issues a fine if you don’t, even if you don’t want your medicine.
• A robotic, life-like companion can provide support and encouragement, but it could also be your outlet for violent behavior or abuse.
• The virtual world is so captivating and pleasurable that you don’t want to leave, or it gets to the point where it is addicting.

It seems as though whenever we involve human nature, we set ourselves up for unintended consequences. Perhaps it is not the nature of technology to be unpredictable; it is us.

1. Brand, Stewart. “WE ARE AS GODS.” The Whole Earth Catalog, September 1968, 1-58. Accessed May 04, 2015. http://www.wholeearth.com/issue/1010/article/195/we.are.as.gods.
2. Brand, Stewart. “Is Technology Moving Too Fast? Self-Accelerating Technologies-Computers That Make Faster Computers, For Example – May Have a Destabilizing Effect on .Society.” TIME, 2000
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