From my perspective, the two most disruptive technologies of the next ten years will be a couple of acronyms: VR and AI. Virtual Reality will transform the way people learn, and their diversions. It will play an increasing role in entertainment and gaming to the extent that many will experience some confusion and conflict with actual reality. Make sure you see last week’s blog for more on this. Between VR and AI so much is happening that these could easily outnumber a host of other topics to discuss on this site next year. Today, I’ll begin the discussion with AI, but both technologies fall into my broader topic of the foreseeable future.
One of my favorite quotes of 2014 (seems like ancient history now) was from an article in Ars Technica by Cyrus Farivar 1. It was a drone story about FBI proliferation to the tune of $5 million that occurred gradually over the period of 10 years, almost unnoticed. Farivar cites a striking quote from Neil Richards, a law professor at Washington University in St. Louis: “We don’t write laws to protect against impossible things, so when the impossible becomes possible, we shouldn’t be surprised that the law doesn’t protect against it…” I love that quote because we are continually surprised that we did not anticipate one thing or the other. Much of this surprise I believe, comes from experts who tell us that this or that won’t happen in the foreseeable future. One of these experts, Miles Brundage, a Ph.D. student at Arizona State, was quoted recently in an article in WIRED. About AI that could surpass human intelligence, Brundage said,
“At the point where we are today, no AI system is at all capable of taking over the world—and won’t be for the foreseeable future.”
There are two things that strike me about these kinds of statements. First is the obvious fact that no one can see the future in the first place, and secondly that the clear implication is, that it will happen, just not yet. It also suggests that we shouldn’t be concerned; it’s too far away. This article was about Elon Musk is open-sourcing something called OpenAI. According to Nathaniel Wood reporting for WIRED, OpenAI is deep-learning code that Musk and his investors want to share with the world, for free. This news comes on the heels of Google’s open-sourcing of their AI code called TensorFlow, immediately followed by a Facebook announcement that they would be sharing their BigSur server hardware. As the article points out, this is not all magnanimous altruism. By opening the door to formerly proprietary software or hardware folks like Musk and companies like Google and Facebook stand to gain. They gain by recruiting talent, and by exponentially increasing development through free outsourcing. A thousand people working with your code are much better than the hundreds inside your building. Here are two very important factors that folks like Brundage don’t take into consideration. First, these people are in a race and, through outsourcing or open-sourcing their stuff they are enlisting people to help them in the race. Secondly, there is that term, exponential. I use it most often when I refer to Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns. It is exactly these kinds of developments that make his prediction so believable. So maybe the foreseeable future is not that far away after all.
All this being said the future is not foreseeable, and the exponential growth in areas like VR and AI will continue. The WIRED article continues with this commentary on AI, (which we all know):
“Deep learning relies on what are called neural networks, vast networks of software and hardware that approximate the web of neurons in the human brain. Feed enough photos of a cat into a neural net, and it can learn to recognize a cat. Feed it enough human dialogue, and it can learn to carry on a conversation. Feed it enough data on what cars encounter while driving down the road and how drivers react, and it can learn to drive.”
Despite their benevolence, this is why Musk and Facebook and Google are in the race. Musk is quick to add that while his motives have an air of transparency to them, it is also true that the more people who have access to deep-learning software, the less likely that one guy will have a monopoly on it.
Musk is a smart guy. He knows that AI could be a blessing or a curse. Open sourcing is his hedge. It could be a good thing… for the foreseeable future.